Ride A Pet Guide- Effective chance
- Attempt count
- At least one
- Compare goals
At least one hatch
Enter an effective one-in-N chance and a number of attempts. This is an independent-attempt estimate: it does not apply hidden luck, pity or egg-specific restrictions.
Enter a chance of at least one in one and a positive whole number of attempts. A collection Index number alone may not be the effective chance for your egg.
What one in N means here
This tool treats each attempt as a success probability of 1 ÷ N. The chance of at least one success after n attempts is 1 − (1 − 1/N)ⁿ. The 50% and 90% outputs are rounded up to whole attempts.
Use the effective chance
A rarity number on the Pets Index may not describe the pool of the egg you are hatching. The tool does not know which pets the egg can produce, whether luck changes the chance, or whether the game uses pity or dependent attempts. Enter a chance that applies to the specific attempt you want to model.
Do not turn an estimate into a deadline
A 90% chance still leaves a 10% chance of no success under the model. Previous failed independent attempts do not make the next one certain. Compare several attempt budgets if useful, but keep your actual time, cash and nest capacity in mind.
Before estimating attempts, check the nest and hatching steps. The reward guide separates event boosts from redeem codes.